Predictions are made by fitting a gaussian with the existing curve. The curve-fitting calculation, a basic Machine Learning technique, assumes that the disease will peak after more than 20 days, based on data from Italy, after day-zero (here defined as the first day when 1/million persons have died). Low populated countries and states or that have few sample points after day-zero are not predicted.

Estimations of active COVID-19 cases are based on the only (somewhat) reliable measuremeent deaths. In the aftermath, the true death rate of corona will be determined, meanwhile we calculate with a death rate of 0.5 %. It should be noted that the death rate is depended on the capacity, load, and quality of each country's health care system. The estimation of active cases is based on the formula deaths/mortality => active cases. For China we calculate with the population of Hubei (about 57,237,740) and not China (about 1,392,730,000).

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